[1]刘吼.基于博弈论-集对分析法的海底管道泄漏风险评估[J].焊管,2024,47(3):47-52.[doi:10.19291/j.cnki.1001-3938.2024.03.007]
　LIU Hou.Risk Assessment of Submarine Pipeline Leakage based on Game Theory?et Pair Analysis[J].,2024,47(3):47-52.[doi:10.19291/j.cnki.1001-3938.2024.03.007]
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基于博弈论-集对分析法的海底管道泄漏风险评估()
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《焊管》[ISSN:1001-3938/CN:61-1160/TE]

卷:
47
期数:
2024年第3期
页码:
47-52
栏目:
应用与开发
出版日期:
2024-03-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Assessment of Submarine Pipeline Leakage based on Game Theory?et Pair Analysis
文章编号:
10.19291/j.cnki.1001-3938.2024.03.007
作者:
刘吼
（中海石油（中国）有限公司 深圳分公司，深圳 518067）
Author(s):
LIU Hou
(Shenzhen Branch of CNOOC (China) Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518067, China)
关键词:
海底管道; 泄漏风险; 博弈论-集对分析; 组合赋权
Keywords:
submarine pipeline;  leakage risk;  game theory?et pair analysis;  combination weighting
分类号:
TE88
DOI:
10.19291/j.cnki.1001-3938.2024.03.007
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
为准确评估海底管道运行中存在的泄漏风险，在调研国内外海底管道事故数据库的基础上，建立了海底管道泄漏风险评价指标体系，分别通过G1法和熵权法对各项指标进行主观、客观赋权，利用博弈论协调两种权重之间的关系，最后采用集对分析法对指标进行处理，得到不同管段的泄漏风险等级。结果表明，博弈论组合赋权的权重结果更合理，组合权重大于0.06的指标从大到小依次为渔船密度、航运船密度、台风、海水腐蚀、H2S腐蚀、地震和管道埋深；管段12和管段20的风险等级较高为IV级，且通过集对势分析，得到管段9、13、15、20处在同势区，说明风险具有向更高一级发展的趋势。可以通过采取限制船舶航速、禁止在管道保护区停泊、设置天气预警装置、加强巡线、设置警告牌等措施降低管道泄漏风险。研究结果对于海底管道的安全运行管理具有指导意义。
Abstract:
In order to accurately assess the leakage risk existing in the operation of submarine pipelines, an index system of submarine pipeline leakage risk assessment was established on the basis of investigation of submarine pipeline accident databases at home and abroad. G1 method and entropy weight method were used to assign subjective and objective weights to each index, and the relationship between the two weights was coordinated by game theory. Finally, set pair analysis method was used to process the indicators. The leakage risk levels of different pipe segments are obtained. The results show that the weight of the combination of game theory is more reasonable, and the index with the combination weight greater than 0.06 is the density of fishing vessels, the density of shipping vessels, typhoon, seawater corrosion, H2S corrosion, earthquake and pipeline buried depth in order from the largest to the smallest. The higher risk level of pipe segments 12 and 20 is level IV, and through the set pair potential analysis, it is found that pipe segments 9, 13, 15 and 20 are in the same potential area, indicating that the risk has a tendency to develop to a higher level. The risk of pipeline leakage can be reduced by limiting ship speed, prohibiting berthing in pipeline protection area, setting up weather warning device, strengthening patrol line, setting up warning sign and so on. The research results are expected to provide guidance for improving the operation and management level of submarine pipelines.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2023-08-03作者简介：刘吼（1989—），男，湖南益阳人，本科，工程师，现主要从事海洋石油生产工艺管理、长输管道安全管理工作。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-03-28